Colombia and Peru could attract investment in the sector if the ban on online betting in Brazil becomes law, according to a specialized lawyer.
Juan Camilo Carrasco, managing partner at law firm Sora Lawyers, told NEXT.io that, should the ban pushed by Lula remain in place, it could favor the redirection of investment flows toward other markets in the region.
“Established markets such as Colombia and Peru appear as the main candidates to absorb part of the growth the sector had originally projected for Brazil,” he stated.
“Latin America won’t lose investment; it will likely see a redistribution of that investment toward jurisdictions with greater regulatory predictability,” the lawyer highlighted.
However, this depends on strengthening an institutional environment and economic policies in the region that foster a stable, predictable, and favorable framework for sustained investment activity.
Colombia was the first country in Latin America to regulate online betting in 2016 and has shown signs of regulatory maturity and legal stability. Institutional recognition of the formal sector also translates into concrete facts. One example is the Constitutional Court’s decision in April of this year to strike down the 19% VAT on online gambling that had been imposed by the Government of Gustavo Petro. Another is the June ruling by the Council of State that suspended certain restrictions Coljuegos had placed on online betting advertising.
“Regulation in Colombia hasn’t changed, except to add verticals and seek regulatory improvements,” Carrasco noted.
Moreover, there doesn’t appear to be any risk of abrupt changes under current president Abelardo de la Espriella, who has built his political and governing approach around a 100% pro-business, free-market stance.
In Peru, the regulated online gambling market came into effect in 2024. The activity is currently going through a period of expansion, driven by the rise of digital platforms and the consolidation of physical venues. In addition to legal certainty and a growing economy, the country offers an attractive framework for investment.
Likewise, according to a 2025 Playtech study, it is the country with the highest betting activity in Latin America.
“After Brazil’s ‘Gold Rush,’ companies are likely to look for more stable markets to invest in,” Carrasco asserted.
What will the regional impact be?
Although litigation, uncertainty, and restructuring are expected in the short term, Carrasco believes “not all is lost” in Brazil.
We’ll have to wait and see what happens in the Sunday, October 4 elections to draw more accurate conclusions. However, “this unprecedented situation leaves a clear lesson: one must invest with caution,” he warned.
For Juan Ignacio Juanena, Operations Director at AzarLatino, an online casino based in Paraguay, the provisional measure, as presented, will not go forward.
“There is still a political and judicial path ahead, and after the elections different scenarios could emerge, ranging from maintaining a strict ban to rebuilding the model with greater restrictions and controls,” he indicated.
Juanena acknowledged that it was necessary to “keep improving” regulation in Brazil, “but throwing away everything that has been achieved so far seems like an unwise decision, and a lack of respect not only toward the companies and professionals in the sector, but toward the population itself,” he stated.
“Gambling will always exist, regulated or not, but players need a State that protects them, not one that abandons them,” he added.
For his part, Michele Stefanelli, Account Management Lead at Play’n GO, stated that Brazil’s case will be studied by authorities in the region. However, he clarified that it shouldn’t be assumed that all countries will follow the same path.
“What happened in Brazil highlights the fragility of trust and is an example of what can happen if policymakers believe regulation isn’t delivering the expected results in terms of social protection and consumer welfare. This should be a wake-up call for all players in the formal sector,” he emphasized.
He added that the rest of the countries should focus their efforts on establishing clear rules, prioritizing responsible products, implementing effective measures to combat illegality, and maintaining an ongoing dialogue with the industry.
Without trust, there is no sustainable investment
Even if the measure were not approved in Congress, the major challenge for Brazil will be to restore trust. Without institutional trust, sustainable development has no foundation to rely on.
Regarding the impact the ban could have on the region, Juanena said it is likely that other countries will choose to tighten legislation on responsible gambling, consumer protection, and financial controls.
“Companies can adapt to high taxes or demanding regulations, but they need predictability. When a country drastically changes a framework it itself recently created, the reputational damage doesn’t simply disappear by reversing course,” Juanena criticized.
Carrasco agreed that the climate of uncertainty could have long-term effects for the industry.
“Changing the rules so abruptly, especially in the midst of an election period, sends a clear political message and affects the country’s perceived legal certainty,” he emphasized.
The consequences don’t only affect operators. For providers like Play´n GO, the blow is immediate. “Our partners are facing major disruptions, despite having invested time, money, and resources to comply with all the obligations arising from the regulation,” noted Stefanelli.
He added that Play’n GO will continue to invest in Brazil, as long as there is “a credible, sustainable, and nationally regulated market.”
He explained that future decisions will depend on how the situation in the country develops.
“Investment seeks opportunity, but sustainable investment follows trust,” he stated.