The sector is expected to get a new boost from the World Cup. Meanwhile, dependency and the illegal market remain on the radar.
The Brazilian online betting market is going through a phase of accelerated expansion. According to data from the Federal Revenue Service, reported by Folha de S.Paulo, licensed operators’ revenue reached R$ 12.2 billion in the first four months of 2026, a growth of 105% compared to the same period of the previous year.
In other words, the information indicates that the revenue of licensed online betting companies doubled in the first four months of this year compared to the same period in 2025. This occurred despite government and judicial restrictions on bets made by social program beneficiaries and indebted individuals.
For example, the sector’s tax collection jumped from R$ 2.2 billion to R$ 4.5 billion between the first four months of 2025 and 2026, a trend that was already appearing in the first quarter, when the Federal Revenue Service recorded R$ 3.39 billion collected.
Tax pressure is expected to grow in the coming years: currently at 13%, the rate on bets’ gross revenue will rise to 15% in 2028, under Complementary Law No. 224/2025.
This way, the sector is approaching the monthly contribution of industries such as tobacco and agriculture, which each collect around R$ 1 billion per month. In 2025, total revenue was R$ 36.9 billion. “It’s a sector that is consolidating,” says Plínio Lemos Jorge, president of ANJL.
“Bets’ tax collection is structural as a new fiscal base, but cyclical in terms of growth pace,” says Carlos Akira Sato, co-founder of Syscapital and specialist in Regulated Markets, Financial Education, Governance and Innovation.
According to him, the revenue is here to stay, but its legitimacy depends on regulatory effectiveness. “Betting is not investment, it’s not savings, and it’s not supplementary income. It’s risk entertainment.”
The specialist warns that good public policy should not encourage more betting in order to collect more taxes, but rather formalize the market and combat illegal operators, expanding tax collection without necessarily increasing the amount Brazilians wager.
An even greater acceleration is expected in the second half of the year. Consultancy H2 Gambling Capital projects an increase of R$ 20 billion to R$ 25 billion in deposits for sports betting during the 2026 World Cup.
The exact revenue, however, will depend on results on the field, since the sector profits from the balance between losing bets and prizes paid out.
Who dominates the market
Ten brands account for 68.8% of the market, with Greek company Betano in the lead (23%), followed by bet365, Superbet, SportingBet and Esportes da Sorte. Blaze is in sixth place, followed by Betnacional, Estrelabet, CassinoPix and Bet 7k.
The number of bettors reached 25 million CPFs (tax IDs) in 2025, with an average spend of R$ 123 per month per player. Each bettor holds, on average, accounts with four operators.
The boom comes with warnings. A survey by Unifesp shows that 4.4% of Brazilian bettors are in a situation of “problem gambling,” more than double the global average of 2%. CNC directly links household indebtedness to the growth of betting.
Illegal market still accounts for half the business
Despite the impressive numbers, legalized bets are competing for space with clandestine operators. A study by IBJR conducted by consultancy LCA estimates that illegal bets represented somewhere between 41% and 51% of the total market. In this scenario, the share of illicit operations would be between R$ 26 billion and R$ 39 billion.
Even in the legal market, however, not every deposit turns into profit for companies. Net gains during the World Cup are still uncertain, as explained by Ed Birkin, president of H2 Gambling Capital: the outcome will depend directly on what happens on the field, since the sector’s revenue corresponds to the balance left over after prizes are paid out.
The challenge of reducing the share of the clandestine market remains. Prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket were blocked by the Finance Ministry in April, but according to IBJR, they continue to operate in the country.