The tech giant Meta is developing an app similar to Polymarket and Kalshi that would allow users to participate in prediction markets, according to a report by the New York Times.
The main difference from Polymarket and Kalshi is that, instead of betting real money on the platform, users would use a points system similar to that of video games. However, the company has not ruled out allowing real-money betting in the future.
Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s CEO, recently formed a small team with which he began working on the development of the app, internally called “Arena”. The app would operate independently of Meta’s existing social media platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger.
The product is still in an experimental phase and for the moment there is no concrete launch date. It is also part of a broader initiative by Zuckerberg to develop new types of apps based on emerging online social behaviors.
Although Meta’s proposal differs from traditional prediction markets, in which users can bet real money on the outcome of future events, Arena would reach a much broader and global audience. According to Meta, around 3.56 billion people used at least one of the company’s platforms daily during the month of March, 4% more than the previous year. Kalshi is estimated to have about 2 million monthly active users, while some reports suggest Polymarket has between 600,000 and 700,000.
This is not the first time Meta has ventured into predictive markets. In 2020, it launched Forecast, a prediction app based on collective collaboration, during the early months of COVID-19. The platform also had a points system and framed forecasting as a way to share knowledge. Meta discontinued Forecast in 2022.