Gibraltar has launched specific regulation on prediction markets, which exempts companies in this sector from complying with certain provisions set out in the Gambling Act 2025.
Gibraltar thus becomes the first territory in the world to create a regulatory framework for this booming activity with the “Prediction Markets Regulations 2026,” which comes into force today (13 July).
Nigel Feetham KC MP, Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, noted that Gibraltar seeks to “regulate innovation responsibly, with a clear regulatory framework” for companies operating these platforms.
Prediction markets have gained public notoriety in recent times, and the debate over their regulation has forced authorities to take action.
In this regard, the British Overseas Territory has chosen to distance itself from the discussion over whether prediction markets should be treated as gambling or as investments, and has proposed a distinct category for these platforms.
Provisions
According to the new regulation, the activity “should not be considered betting, gambling or a lottery for the purposes of the Act.” This means that although predictive markets are covered under the Gambling Act 2025, they will not be classified as gambling operators.
The 24-page regulatory text adopts what the Government describes as an “activity-based and risk-based approach.” Under the rules, each event contract must be approved and certified by the Gambling Authority, and each must be “clear, susceptible to objective settlement, not easily open to manipulation, and consistent with regulatory objectives.” An independent oversight committee will ensure compliance with the framework, and operators must maintain their own systems to prevent market abuse.
According to the Government, the regulation falls within the framework of the Gambling Act 2025, and therefore the activity will be overseen by the Gambling Division. The decision responds to a practical need and does not constitute a statement on the nature of these markets.
“This isn’t about labels,” Feetham explained, “but about ensuring that the chosen framework allows for effective oversight and meets robust standards of market integrity, transparency, participant protection and prevention of financial crime.”
The regulation will also allow for the blocking of contracts that pose risks related to insider information use, consumer harm, or damage to Gibraltar’s reputation.
New players in the market
ADI Predictstreet — the official prediction markets partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026, based on the ADI Chain blockchain managed by the Abu Dhabi ADI Foundation — had already obtained its licence in Gibraltar as a betting intermediary on 26 March, under the Gambling Act 2025.
Likewise, Wire Markets, a platform from the California-based company WagerWire, received approval in principle in June and is expected to launch around the start of the international club football season in August. WagerWire co-founder Travis Geiger described the new regulatory framework as “a milestone for the prediction markets industry” and said it “gives operators the clarity they need to develop their long-term projects.”
Feetham revealed that they expect to grant a third licence in the coming weeks.