Spain’s Ministry of Consumer Affairs has opened a sanctioning proceeding against the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, considering them gambling platforms that operate in the country without the corresponding authorization.
According to the General Directorate for the Regulation of Gambling of the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, prediction market platforms “have the nature of gambling” by accepting bets on uncertain matters. And for that reason, they must hold an administrative license.
The ministry explains that gambling operators must comply with a series of legal obligations, such as controlling access by minors or by people banned from gambling, as well as having mechanisms to control minors’ access and supervision systems for users. Conditions that these platforms do not meet, according to a ministry statement.
The proceeding was notified this Tuesday through its publication in the Official State Gazette (BOE), after several failed attempts at direct notification to the operators at their known addresses abroad. The sanctioning process is expected to last between three and four months.
Prediction markets have gained growing popularity since the last United States elections. According to Metahub Research, Polymarket and Kalshi accounted for more than 97.5% of the global market last year.
Before 2024, Polymarket attracted fewer than 1,000 new users each month and recorded approximately 1 million in trading volume. But in November 2024, during the United States elections, these platforms experienced a boom: Polymarket was already gaining around 100,000 new users per month and a trading volume of more than 1,000 million.
Although one of its main markets is the United States, prediction markets have gained momentum around the world and their boom has sparked a debate about how to classify them.
The platforms argue that they are not merely gambling, but an investment product that anyone can take part in. However, Spain is not the only country that has decided to block these websites. Last April, the Brazilian government blocked access to both markets as part of an operation against prediction market platforms that did not comply with federal gambling laws.