The Donald Trump administration has introduced a series of rules to regulate prediction markets, aiming to clarify what types of events should be allowed.
With the proposal from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the goal is to clarify which events are “contrary to the public interest” and therefore should not be offered on prediction platforms.
It should be noted that the proposed rules would still allow most sports-related markets. A large share of trading on prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket comes from sports markets. This is one of the main points of controversy, as the gambling industry argues that they are essentially indistinguishable from traditional betting.
Under the new CFTC regulation, contracts related to the overall outcome of a sporting competition would be allowed, such as final scores, point spreads, wins and losses, tournament rankings and advancements, statistical performance of players or teams, and cumulative results over a season.
In contrast, player injuries, referee decisions, and all specific actions involving a particular individual or team would be contrary to the public interest. Likewise, youth or pre-college sports would be excluded.
“The CFTC will protect the integrity of our regulated markets without hindering responsible innovation,” said CFTC Chairman Mike Selig in a statement. “This proposal gives the Commission a durable and transparent framework for identifying the contracts that Congress directed us to examine, while allowing legitimate markets to move forward.”
The Commission has up to 90 days to analyze and review the regulation.