The Copenhagen Group, an international network created under the Council of Europe’s Macolin Convention to fight against the manipulation of sports competitions, issued seven “yellow alerts” over possible irregularities in betting markets during the 2026 World Cup, although FIFA stated that there is no evidence of match-fixing.
According to the report, the organization monitored all 104 matches of the tournament and estimated that around 240 billion dollars were wagered, nearly double the amount in Qatar 2022. It also placed 15 matches under enhanced monitoring and analyzed 12 controversies related to integrity risks.
The seven alerts issued were “yellow notifications,” a category the group describes as signs of irregularity based on multiple indicators, including unexplained fluctuations in odds, rumors on social media, or information from sources.
A yellow alert is issued when initial indicators point to possible irregularities that require more thorough analysis; this does not necessarily mean that manipulation occurred.
The Copenhagen Group’s operation was carried out in cooperation with FIFA’s Integrity Task Force, of which both the Copenhagen Group and the Council of Europe are members.
Among the episodes that raised suspicions, according to sources in a report prepared by The Athletic, are the red card shown to South Africa’s Themba Zwane in the 84th minute of his team’s debut against Mexico, a betting market on Polymarket regarding the draw between Spain and Cape Verde, the disallowed goal by Ferrán Torres against Saudi Arabia, as well as an open market on the availability of American forward Folarin Balogun after his sending-off in the round of 32. It is worth recalling that this last case involved U.S. President Donald Trump, who asked FIFA president Gianni Infantino to review the player’s expulsion, considering it was not a foul. The sanction was temporarily lifted and Balogun took part in the round-of-16 loss to Belgium (1-4), amid worldwide outrage.
This is the first time the Copenhagen Group has monitored prediction markets. In this regard, the organization noted that “these platforms present new integrity challenges, as they allow users to place bets on a wide range of events, often anonymously and using payment methods that are difficult to trace. Their monitoring marks a milestone for an international competition.”
Meanwhile, FIFA’s integrity task force insisted that there was no “suspicious betting activity or indications of match manipulation in connection with any match” throughout the entire competition.
The Council of Europe calls for football to be protected from political pressure
Alain Berset, Secretary General of the Council of Europe, urged FIFA to work with regulatory authorities to put in place a new regulatory framework to protect the integrity of the sport and address future challenges.
In a letter to Infantino, Berset stated that football is entering a new stage marked by integrity challenges, in a context where the influence of money, power, and new technologies threatens the healthy development of the sport.
“The next crisis has already begun. It has two names: money and power,” Berset stressed. “Political influence is now even being exerted on the pitch itself. A sanction was suspended during the competition after a head of state called the president of FIFA. When rules are circumvented due to pressure, any result can be called into question,” he explained.
“Betting no longer focuses on the sporting outcome, but instead depends on actions that a single player can generate without altering the scoreboard. A bet is won by making other people lose. It’s an open door to fraud,” he added.
Finally, Berset questioned the agreement FIFA maintains with the prediction markets platform ADI Predictstreet, believing it could endanger the integrity of football.