Data commissioned by ANJL from Cruz Consulting challenges the political narrative linking online betting to electoral dissatisfaction, with direct impact on the sector’s regulatory positioning ahead of the 2026 elections.
A survey conducted among evangelical voters in Greater São Paulo delivers a relevant data point to the Brazilian betting market: bets carry practically no weight as a factor in political rejection of President Lula within this electoral segment.
The survey, commissioned by the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) and conducted by Cruz Consulting between March 24 and 26, 2026, interviewed 1,159 respondents, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points and a 95% confidence level.
The conclusion is straightforward: online betting appears as just 1% among the political reasons evangelical voters cite for not voting for Lula in a potential second round in 2026.
What Really Explains the Evangelical Rejection
The dominant factors are structural and political. Corruption leads with 34%, while taxes and public spending together account for 47% of economic complaints. The Federal Supreme Court appears at 9%, amid a scenario of persistent institutional tension. Bets, by contrast, barely register on the radar.
“There is a mistaken interpretation when trying to attribute to bets an electoral weight they don’t have,” said ANJL president Plínio Lemos Jorge. “The 1% statistic shows that the debate has shifted to political, economic, and cultural causes.”
Why This Matters for the Sector
For operators, suppliers, and regulators tracking the evolution of the iGaming market in Brazil, the message is clear: the political risk attributed to bets has been overstated. The narrative that online betting fuels social or electoral rejection, especially among religiously conservative demographics, does not hold up against the data.
Two other figures reinforce this picture: only 2% of evangelical voters in Greater São Paulo say they bet systematically, and nearly half (47%) cannot distinguish regulated sports betting from traditional illegal games, such as “jogo do bicho.”
The Regulatory Takeaway
With Brazil consolidating its regulatory framework under Law 14.790/23, industry players now have empirical backing to resist disproportionate political pressure.
The data indicates that the regulatory debate should be anchored in concrete evidence, consumer protection, responsible gambling, and market integrity, rather than in distorted electoral perceptions.